El Niño Returns, Earth's Heat Accelerates, and the US Dismantles Its Ocean Watch — Your Climate Briefing, June 2026

This week's climate briefing covers a convergence of alarming signals that together paint the clearest picture yet of a planet under accelerating stress. A new El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, global warming has hit 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels, the United States has dismantled a critical ocean monitoring network, and the UN Secretary-General has issued an urgent call to action at London Climate Action Week.

El Niño Is Back — And It Could Push 2027 to Record Temperatures

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific, forecasting an 80% likelihood of the phenomenon persisting through November 2026. NOAA declared El Niño after Pacific sea surface temperatures exceeded the 0.5°C threshold above average, and forecasters now anticipate the event intensifying to a 'moderate to strong' level this fall.

The last two El Niño events — in 2014–16 and 2023–24 — brought record heat around the world and fueled further global temperature increases. 2024 went down as the hottest year on record as a result. Scientists warn that this new event, combined with long-term human-caused warming, raises the serious prospect of 2027 becoming the hottest year ever recorded. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged world leaders to treat El Niño 'as the urgent climate warning it is.'

Global Warming Hits 1.37°C — Nearly All of It Human-Made

A landmark study from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that human activities pushed global warming to 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, making it the third hottest year on record. Crucially, the study found that 1.24°C of the 1.26°C warming observed over the 2016–2025 decade was directly caused by human activity — leaving almost no room for natural variability as an explanation.

Scientists say it is 'virtually certain' that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years ever recorded, and the year is already on pace to finish among the top five. Former NOAA climate scientists, continuing to provide public briefings after the Trump administration canceled NOAA's official updates, warned that monthly average global temperatures this summer could rise as much as 3.5°F (1.9°C) above the pre-industrial benchmark.

US Dismantles Deep-Ocean AMOC Monitoring Network

In a move that alarmed oceanographers worldwide, the Trump administration has shut down a key deep-ocean observation network that provided critical data on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — the giant ocean current system that regulates temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere and distributes heat globally.

Scientists have repeatedly warned that AMOC is nearing a dangerous tipping point as the planet heats up. Without the constant circulation it provides, regional temperatures would become far more extreme — intense heat near the equator and severe cold in the poles. The loss of this monitoring network leaves a dangerous blind spot in our ability to track one of climate science's most closely watched warning systems.

UN Secretary-General Demands Emergency Methane Cuts at London Climate Action Week

On June 23, 2026, in a special address at London Climate Action Week, UN Secretary-General António Guterres drew on the latest scientific evidence to argue that continued fossil fuel dependence is the root cause of both the escalating climate crisis and growing global energy insecurity. He outlined a clear pathway forward: renewable energy, strengthened international cooperation, and science-based action.

Guterres made an urgent call to dramatically cut methane emissions — one of the fastest-acting and most powerful drivers of near-term global warming — starting immediately with the energy sector. His address underscored that the window to prevent the worst climate outcomes is narrowing fast, and that every fraction of a degree matters for the billions of people already experiencing the consequences of a warming world.

Tags: El Niño · Global Warming 1.37°C · AMOC · Methane Emissions · António Guterres · Copernicus · Climate Change 2026