NDCs 3.0: Are Countries New Climate Plans Strong Enough to Save 1.5 Degrees
The third round of Nationally Determined Contributions — NDCs 3.0 — are now being assessed ahead of COP31. The verdict so far is sobering: the new plans are better than their predecessors, but collectively still fall far short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and keep the Paris Agreement's goals within reach.
The Numbers Tell the Story
By the end of COP30, 119 countries representing 74% of global emissions had submitted new NDCs. UN analysis finds the world remains on course for 2.3 to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. The new commitments collectively deliver less than 15% of the emissions reductions required by 2035 to stay on a 1.5 degrees Celsius trajectory.
Who Is Leading and Who Is Lagging
The EU's NDC 3.0 commits to a 90% net emissions reduction by 2040 — the most ambitious absolute target from a major economy. But the G20 as a group has not submitted plans consistent with 1.5 degrees Celsius. The US formally withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2025. China commits to peaking emissions before 2030, but the scale of post-peak reductions remains vague.
Tags: NDCs | Paris Agreement | 1.5 Degrees | Climate Ambition | Emissions Gap | COP31
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